Episode 5:
Field GUide Chapter 1
The workforce Challenge
What problem are we actually trying to solve?
In 2026, the Hawaiʻi State Legislature adopted the Hawaiʻi Generational Workforce Commitment through SCR 139, recognizing that Hawaiʻi’s workforce challenges cannot be solved through isolated programs or short-term initiatives alone. The resolution calls for a coordinated, long-term strategy to ensure that, by 2045, all people in Hawaiʻi have a path to a career that enables them to learn, work, and thrive in Hawaiʻi while contributing to a vibrant economy grounded in community values. That commitment begins with a deceptively simple question:
What problem are we actually trying to solve?
Over the course of Season One of the Workforce Understory, we discovered that many of the assumptions shaping workforce conversations in Hawaiʻi don’t fully capture the challenge. Looking beneath the surface revealed a more nuanced reality—one that reframes both the problem and the opportunity.
Together, the evidence from Season One led to four important shifts in perspective—changes in how we understand Hawaiʻi’s workforce challenge and, ultimately, how we think it should be addressed.
Shift 1:
From counting jobs to measuring opportunity
The problem isn’t simply a shortage of jobs.
It’s a shortage of quality jobs.
For years, workforce conversations have focused on whether Hawaiʻi has enough jobs. But looking only at job counts hides a more important question:
How many jobs actually provide a pathway to economic security?
Our analysis of statewide employment projections found:
Approximately 371,600 job openings are projected between 2022 and 2032.
Only about 101,200 are expected to pay at or above Hawaiʻi’s living wage.
In other words, less than one-third of projected openings provide wages sufficient for long-term economic stability.
Evidence
Hawaiʻi is projected to generate approximately 371,600 job openings between 2022 and 2032, but only about 101,200—less than one-third—are expected to pay at or above a living wage. How many projected job openings will pay a living wage?
The majority of future openings therefore do not provide wages sufficient for long-term economic stability, showing why job growth alone is an incomplete measure of workforce progress. How many projected job openings will pay a living wage?
Below-living-wage growth is concentrated in several high-volume occupation groups, reinforcing that the quality and composition of job growth matter alongside the total number of openings. Which occupation groups will generate the most below-living-wage openings?
These findings shift the conversation away from simply creating employment toward improving the quality of opportunity available to Hawaiʻi residents.
Why This Matters
Looking only at the number of jobs in Hawaiʻi can create a false sense of progress. Employment growth alone does not tell us whether people can build stable lives, support their families, or choose to remain in Hawaiʻi over the long term.
The evidence suggests that the more important question is not “How many jobs are we creating?” but “How many quality career opportunities are we creating?”
This distinction changes how we think about workforce development. Success is no longer measured simply by reducing unemployment or filling vacancies. It is measured by expanding access to jobs that provide economic security, meaningful career advancement, and the opportunity to learn, work, and thrive in Hawaiʻi.
That shift in perspective changes not only how we measure workforce success—it changes the questions we ask next.
Questions This Evidence Raises
For Workers
If most future openings do not pay a living wage, what does that mean for workers trying to build a future in Hawaiʻi?
For Communities
How can counties expand the number of living-wage opportunities available to local residents?
For Decision Makers
What kinds of investments and economic strategies actually increase the share of quality jobs in Hawaiʻi’s economy?
Shift 2:
From preparing workers to connecting people
The challenge isn’t simply preparing people.
It’s connecting people to opportunity.
Even if Hawaiʻi successfully prepares and retains its future workforce, opportunity remains constrained.
Season One found that:
Approximately 170,500 new workforce entrants are expected over the next decade.
Only about 59% can expect a projected living-wage opening based on current labor market conditions.
Roughly 41% will likely enter jobs that do not initially provide a living wage.
At the same time, education requirements reveal another challenge.
Many living-wage jobs require bachelor’s degrees, while most jobs accessible without postsecondary education fall below the living wage threshold.
This creates a structural disconnect between workforce preparation and economic mobility.
Evidence
Approximately 170,500 people are expected to enter Hawaiʻi’s workforce over the next decade, but projected living-wage openings are equivalent to only about 59% of that future workforce. Roughly 41% may therefore enter jobs that do not initially provide a living wage. What share of Hawaiʻi’s projected workforce entrants will have access to a living-wage job?
Living-wage opportunities are more likely to require education or training beyond high school, with about 41% of projected living-wage openings typically requiring a bachelor’s degree. What education levels are required to access living-wage jobs?
Jobs requiring little or no postsecondary education are much more heavily concentrated below the living-wage threshold, revealing a structural disconnect between accessible employment and economic security. What education levels are required for jobs that pay below a living wage?
Why This Matters
Preparing more workers will not, by itself, create greater economic mobility. The evidence suggests Hawaiʻi faces a structural alignment challenge. Workers need clear, affordable pathways into careers that provide long-term economic security, while employers need stronger connections to education and training systems that prepare people for those opportunities.
Improving outcomes will require more than increasing educational attainment. It will require designing workforce pathways that intentionally connect people to quality careers throughout their working lives.
Questions This Evidence Raises
For Workers
If living-wage careers increasingly require education or training beyond high school, what pathways exist for working adults to gain those skills without leaving the workforce?
How can workers identify careers that offer real opportunities for advancement rather than simply immediate employment?
For Communities
Are local education and workforce systems preparing residents for the careers that are actually growing in their county?
How can communities create more pathways into living-wage careers that don’t depend exclusively on traditional four-year degrees?
For Decision Makers
Where are the biggest disconnects between workforce supply and employer demand?
How should investments in education, training, and career navigation change to better connect people with existing opportunities?
Which populations and industries should be prioritized if the goal is to increase access to living-wage careers?
Shift 3:
From statewide solutions to place-based strategies
Hawaiʻi doesn’t have one workforce challenge.
It has multiple local workforce systems, and challenges.
Looking across counties revealed dramatically different labor market conditions. Each island experiences unique combinations of:
Workforce supply
Employer demand
Education requirements
Industry mix
Access to living-wage employment
Some counties face shortages of workers. Others face shortages of opportunity. Still others experience both simultaneously. These differences suggest that while Hawaiʻi shares one workforce vision, achieving that vision will require different local strategies.
Evidence
Each county has a different balance between the number of people entering the workforce and the living-wage opportunities available to them. Some counties face substantial shortages of opportunity even while employers report difficulty finding workers. How does the number of workers entering Maui County’s workforce compare with available living-wage openings? · How does the number of workers entering Honolulu’s workforce compare with available living-wage openings? · How does the number of workers entering Kauaʻi County’s workforce compare with available living-wage openings? · How does the number of workers entering Hawaiʻi County’s workforce compare with available living-wage openings?
The educational pathways into living-wage employment differ across islands, reflecting distinct combinations of employers, occupations, and regional demand. What education levels are required for living-wage job openings in Honolulu? · What education levels are required for living-wage job openings on Maui? · What education levels are required for living-wage job openings on Kauaʻi? · What education levels are required for living-wage job openings on Hawaiʻi Island?
Each county also has a distinct mix of occupations and future job openings, creating different foundations for local workforce pathways. Which occupation groups are projected to generate the most living-wage job openings on Hawaiʻi Island, 2022–2032? · Which occupation groups are projected to generate the most living-wage job openings in Honolulu, 2022–2032? · Which occupation groups are projected to generate the most living-wage job openings on Maui, 2022–2032? · Which occupation groups are projected to generate the most living-wage job openings on Kauaʻi, 2022–2032?
The industries where economic mobility appears most promising differ across counties, reinforcing that Hawaiʻi needs locally designed strategies within a shared statewide vision. Where are STAR job postings concentrated across Hawaiʻi Island industries? · Where are STAR job postings concentrated across Honolulu industries? · Where are STAR job postings concentrated across Kauaʻi industries? · Where are STAR workers finding job postings across Maui County industries?
Why This Matters
Hawaiʻi shares a common workforce vision, but it does not share a single labor market. The evidence suggests that each county has its own combination of industries, employers, workforce needs, educational assets, and barriers to opportunity. As a result, strategies that are effective in one community may not translate directly to another.
Rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach, statewide progress will depend on helping each county build on its own strengths while addressing its own constraints. This means workforce development is not simply a statewide responsibility—it is a locally designed effort that contributes to a shared statewide vision.
By understanding where opportunity already exists and where barriers remain, communities can begin bringing together employers, educators, workforce organizations, and public partners to intentionally strengthen the pathways that matter most in their local economy.
Questions This Evidence Raises
For Workers
Which industries in my county offer the strongest opportunities to build a stable, living-wage career?
If opportunities are limited where I live, what pathways exist to advance without leaving my community?
How do local labor market conditions shape my career options?
For Communities
What industries already have the right ingredients to become stronger mobility pathways?
Which barriers are preventing local workers from accessing existing opportunities?
How should workforce strategies differ across counties rather than relying on a single statewide approach?
What assets already exist in our community that we can build upon?
For Decision Makers
If each county has a different labor market, should statewide workforce investments be designed differently across counties?
Which sectors offer the greatest opportunity for place-based investment and collaboration?
How can state agencies, community colleges, employers, and local partners coordinate around the specific needs of each county?
What additional local data would help communities move from identifying opportunities to designing effective workforce strategies?
Shift 4:
From individual programs to workforce systems
The real challenge isn’t creating jobs or producing workers.
It’s building pathways.
Taken together, the first three shifts point toward a larger conclusion: job quality matters, pathways matter, and those pathways look different in every county. The challenge isn’t simply producing more graduates. It isn’t simply creating more jobs. And it isn’t simply filling today’s vacancies. The challenge is designing workforce systems that reliably connect people to quality careers over time. Throughout Season One, we found that mobility pathways emerge when several conditions align:
Employers create accessible, quality jobs.
Education and training reflect real labor market demand.
Workers can see clear pathways for advancement.
Communities coordinate around local opportunities.
Public and private partners invest consistently over time.
When these conditions come together, workforce development becomes more than a collection of programs—it becomes a pathway that enables people to learn, work, and thrive in Hawaiʻi.
This systems perspective is at the heart of Hawaiʻi’s Generational Workforce Commitment. The commitment recognizes that creating equitable access to opportunity requires more than isolated initiatives. It requires long-term collaboration across education, workforce development, economic development, industry, philanthropy, and government. Rather than asking, “How do we fill today’s jobs?” we begin asking a different question:
How do we design a workforce system that consistently creates opportunity for future generations while improving opportunity for the people who are already here?
That shift in perspective changes nearly every conversation that follows.
Evidence
Paid internships can create long-term value when they connect learners to continued education, employment, and advancement—and scaling those pathways requires employer participation, intermediary infrastructure, and shared investment. What share of Hawaiʻi’s annual workforce entrants has known access to paid internships or high-quality work-based learning? · How many employers would need to participate for Hawaiʻi to reach 17,000 annual paid pathway opportunities? · What would the full annual cost of scaling paid pathways look like when intermediary infrastructure is included? · How does the cost of one high-quality internship shift under different funding models?
Many STAR workers are already within reach of a living wage, suggesting that connected opportunities for learning, advancement, and job-quality improvement could help thousands of workers continue moving toward economic security. How are Hawaiʻi Island workers distributed relative to a living wage? · How are Honolulu workers distributed relative to a living wage? · How are Kauaʻi workers distributed relative to a living wage? · How are Maui County workers distributed relative to a living wage?
Mobility opportunities are emerging across multiple industries, but the strongest foundations differ by county—reinforcing the need for coordinated systems that can translate local opportunity into accessible pathways. Where are STAR job postings concentrated across Hawaiʻi industries? · Where are STAR job postings concentrated across Hawaiʻi Island industries? · Where are STAR job postings concentrated across Honolulu industries? · Where are STAR job postings concentrated across Kauaʻi industries? · Where are STAR workers finding job postings across Maui County industries?
Sustained workforce investment could generate significant local economic activity, extending the value of connected pathways beyond the workers who advance directly. What is the total local economic impact of sustained workforce investment in Hawaiʻi County? · What is the total local economic impact of sustained workforce investment in Honolulu? · What is the total local economic impact of sustained workforce investment in Kauaʻi County? · What is the total local economic impact of sustained workforce investment in Maui County?
Why This Matters
The evidence suggests that economic mobility does not happen by accident. It emerges when education, employers, workforce organizations, public agencies, philanthropy, and communities work together to create clear, coordinated pathways into quality careers.
This shifts workforce development from a collection of individual programs to a shared system of opportunity. Rather than asking whether a single training program or initiative is successful, we begin asking a different question:
Are we intentionally designing workforce systems that help people move into quality careers over time?
That shift changes how success is measured. Instead of counting jobs filled or participants served, success becomes the number of people who are able to learn, work, and thrive in Hawaiʻi through pathways that are accessible, sustainable, and responsive to local labor market needs.
Questions This Evidence Raises
For Workers
What would it look like to have a clear pathway—not just to my next job, but to a long-term career that allows me to remain and thrive in Hawaiʻi?
How can lifelong learning become a normal part of career advancement rather than something people return to only after losing a job?
For Communities
Which local employers, educators, workforce organizations, and community leaders need to work together to build stronger mobility pathways?
Where do the conditions for successful workforce mobility already exist, and how can communities strengthen and expand them?
How can communities measure progress beyond simply counting jobs or training participants?
For Decision Makers
If the goal is to build pathways rather than individual programs, how should public and private investments change?
What kinds of long-term partnerships and governance structures are needed to sustain workforce mobility over decades rather than funding cycles?
How can workforce, education, and economic development become more intentionally coordinated around shared regional goals?
What workforce intelligence is still needed to design, strengthen, and continuously improve these pathways over time?
Looking ahead
Taken together, these four shifts in perspective suggest that Hawaiʻi’s workforce challenge is not simply one of labor supply, job creation, or educational attainment.
It is a challenge of designing systems that intentionally connect people to quality careers over time.
The chapters that follow explore this challenge in greater depth—examining who is being left behind, where opportunity already exists, how communities can build stronger mobility pathways, and what workforce intelligence Hawaiʻi will need to guide this work into the future.
What is the Workforce Understory Field Guide and how do I use it?
Chapter 1: The Workforce Challenge
You are here!
How is opportunity experienced across Hawaiʻi’s workforce?
How do communities recognize where economic mobility is already emerging?
How do communities turn opportunity into lasting economic mobility?
What questions remain unanswered, and what workforce intelligence will Hawaiʻi need to continue learning together?