How does the number of young people projected to enter Hawaiʻi County’s workforce compare with the number of living-wage job openings available between 2022 and 2032?
Workforce Understory Episode: Season 1, Episode 1 — The Geography of Opportunity
Geography: Hawaiʻi County
Topic: Living-wage opportunity, projected job growth, and job quality
The takeaway
Hawaiʻi County is projected to have 25,083 young people enter its workforce between 2022 and 2032—the second-largest cohort among Hawaiʻi’s counties.
During the same period, the county is projected to generate approximately 8,600 living-wage job openings. That amounts to enough living-wage opportunity for only about 34% of its projected workforce entrants.
The difference between projected entrants and living-wage openings is approximately 16,483—the largest absolute gap among the Neighbor Island counties.
Only about one in three projected workforce entrants on Hawaiʻi Island may have a living-wage job available to them.
What this visualization shows
This visualization compares the number of young people projected to enter Hawaiʻi County’s workforce with the number of job openings expected to meet or exceed the county’s living-wage threshold.
The comparison reveals a significant structural mismatch. Hawaiʻi County is expected to have more than 25,000 young people enter the workforce over the decade, but only about 8,600 living-wage openings are projected during the same period.
This does not mean that every living-wage opening will go to a new workforce entrant or that each entrant will compete for only one job. Incumbent workers seeking advancement, adults returning to employment, and people moving to Hawaiʻi Island may pursue the same opportunities.
Instead, the visualization provides a high-level measure of whether the county’s economy is creating quality employment at a scale that matches the next generation of workers.
Hawaiʻi County faces a particularly difficult combination: a relatively large youth population, a limited supply of living-wage openings, and a vast geography across which employers, training providers, and workers are distributed.
The challenge is therefore not simply preparing young people to enter the workforce.
It is ensuring that the local economy offers enough accessible, living-wage opportunities for them to build their futures on Hawaiʻi Island.
Why this matters
Hawaiʻi County’s young people are entering a labor market in which living-wage opportunity is projected to be limited relative to the size of their cohort.
For the approximately 16,483 projected entrants without a corresponding living-wage opening, the alternatives may include accepting work below the cost of living, combining multiple jobs, remaining dependent on family support, delaying financial independence, or leaving the island in search of stronger opportunities.
At this scale, the mismatch may create significant pressure on Hawaiʻi Island’s ability to retain local talent.
The challenge may be intensified by geography. A living-wage job in Kona may not be realistically accessible to someone living in Hilo, Kaʻū, Kohala, or Puna. Transportation costs, housing availability, childcare, and uneven access to education and training can make an already limited set of opportunities even harder to reach.
This suggests that workforce preparation alone cannot resolve the problem. Hawaiʻi County must continue helping young people build skills and navigate careers, but it must also expand employer demand, improve the quality of existing jobs, and strengthen sectors capable of creating living-wage employment at meaningful scale.
Different parts of the island may require different strategies. West Hawaiʻi’s employer needs, East Hawaiʻi’s institutional assets, and the economic conditions facing rural communities may not be addressed through a single countywide solution.
This evidence invites Hawaiʻi Island to ask:
How can Hawaiʻi County create enough locally accessible, living-wage opportunities for more young people to remain and build their lives here?
Evidence:
Questions this visualization helps answer
How many young people are projected to enter Hawaiʻi County’s workforce over the decade?
How many living-wage job openings are projected during the same period?
What share of Hawaiʻi Island’s incoming workforce may have access to a living-wage opportunity?
How large is the gap between projected workforce entrants and living-wage openings?
How does Hawaiʻi County’s coverage rate compare with those of the other counties?
How does the county’s large youth cohort affect the scale of its workforce challenge?
Curiosity:
Questions this visualization raises
Why does Hawaiʻi County have the second-lowest living-wage coverage rate despite having the state’s second-largest projected youth cohort?
How much of the gap is explained by the county’s industry and occupation mix?
Which sectors generate most of Hawaiʻi County’s living-wage openings?
Which sectors employ large numbers of people but create relatively few living-wage opportunities?
How do geography, transportation, housing, and access to training affect whether young people can reach the opportunities that do exist?
How are living-wage openings distributed across West Hawaiʻi, East Hawaiʻi, North Hawaiʻi, Kaʻū, Puna, and other communities?
What happens to the approximately 16,483 projected entrants without a corresponding living-wage opening?
How many young people may leave Hawaiʻi Island because they cannot find sustainable work?
Which industries could expand living-wage employment at sufficient scale to reduce the gap?
What role could healthcare, construction, skilled trades, agriculture, renewable energy, technology, education, or public-sector employment play?
Can existing employers improve wages, benefits, job stability, and advancement opportunities for incumbent workers?
Are Hawaiʻi County’s education and training programs aligned with the living-wage opportunities expected to grow?
How can regional employer partnerships strengthen pathways in different parts of the island?
Does Hawaiʻi County face the greatest outmigration pressure among the Neighbor Islands?
Is the ratio of living-wage openings to projected workforce entrants improving or worsening over time?
Youth Perspective
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