How many employers across different size categories would need to participate each year for Hawaiʻi to reach 17,000 annual paid pathway opportunities by 2035?
Workforce Understory Episode: Episode Three — Paid Pathways as Infrastructure
Geography: Statewide
Topic: Employers, internships, workforce entrants, intermediary capacity, and system coordination
The takeaway
Under this steady-growth scenario, Hawaiʻi would need approximately 489 small employers and 65 midsize employers participating in paid pathways in 2026.
By 2035, participation would need to grow to approximately 4,690 small employers with one to 19 employees and 650 midsize employers with 20 to 499 employees.
Together with the model’s assumptions for larger employers, this represents roughly 22% of Hawaiʻi businesses with employees.
The participation target is concentrated heavily among small firms. Because each small employer is assumed to provide only two placements annually, the system would need to recruit and sustain relationships with nearly 5,000 of them by 2035.
The primary challenge is not persuading a few large employers to host many learners. It is building the infrastructure to support thousands of small employers hosting a few learners each.
What this visualization shows
This visualization estimates how many employers of different sizes would need to participate each year for Hawaiʻi to reach 17,000 annual paid internships or high-quality work-based learning placements by 2035.
The model follows the same steady-growth path introduced in the previous visualization. Participation begins at a relatively modest level and expands each year alongside the number of placements.
In 2026, the modeled system would require approximately 489 participating small employers and 65 participating midsize employers. By 2035, those figures rise to approximately 4,690 and 650, respectively.
The large number of small employers reflects an important assumption: each participating firm with one to 19 employees generates approximately two placements per year. Small businesses therefore contribute meaningfully to the statewide total, but no single firm adds many opportunities.
Midsize and large employers may be able to provide more placements per organization. They are also much less numerous within Hawaiʻi’s employer base.
The visualization is a planning model rather than a prediction. Its results depend on assumptions about placements per employer, annual growth, continued employer participation, and the number of opportunities that remain available from one year to the next.
Why this matters
A participation target of roughly 22% of employer businesses may sound achievable when expressed as a statewide percentage.
The operational burden becomes clearer when translated into individual employer relationships.
By 2035, the system would need to engage nearly 5,000 small businesses. Each one would need to understand the program, identify suitable work, select or accept participants, provide supervision, manage workplace logistics, and return in future years.
Recruitment is only the beginning.
Employers may stop participating because supervisors leave, business conditions change, funding expires, or hosting a learner requires more time than anticipated. A sustainable system would need to support existing employers while continually recruiting replacements and adding new participants.
No single intermediary organization currently has the capacity to manage thousands of relationships statewide.
Expansion will likely require a distributed network of regional, industry, and institutional intermediaries operating through common standards and shared infrastructure. These organizations could recruit employers, prepare learners, subsidize wages, provide supervisor training, manage paperwork, and help resolve problems during placements.
Small employers may need particularly intensive support. A large organization can distribute supervision and administration across several departments. In a five-person business, the same responsibilities may fall directly on the owner.
The visualization therefore points toward an infrastructure question as much as an employer-participation question.
This evidence invites Hawaiʻi to ask:
What network of intermediaries, funding, tools, and employer supports would make participation feasible for thousands of small businesses year after year?
Evidence:
Questions this visualization helps answer
How many small employers would need to participate in 2026?
How many midsize employers would need to participate?
How would employer participation grow through 2035?
What share of Hawaiʻi’s employer businesses would eventually need to participate?
Which employer-size category would account for most participating organizations?
Why does Hawaiʻi’s small-business economy create a significant coordination challenge?
How many placements is each participating small employer assumed to provide?
Curiosity:
Questions this visualization raises
What placement assumptions are used for small, midsize, and large employers?
How sensitive is the model to changing the assumed number of placements per employer?
How many large employers are included in the full 2035 participation target?
What annual employer attrition rate should a more realistic model assume?
How many new employers would need to be recruited each year simply to replace those that stop participating?
What would it take to retain nearly 5,000 small employers over time?
Which administrative responsibilities create the greatest burden for small firms?
Would wage subsidies be sufficient, or would employers also need help with payroll, insurance, recruitment, and supervision?
Could an intermediary serve as the employer of record for participants?
How many employer relationships can one intermediary staff member manage effectively?
How many regional or industry intermediaries would a statewide system require?
Which organizations already have trusted relationships with small businesses?
Could chambers of commerce, industry associations, workforce boards, colleges, or community organizations help recruit employers?
How should employer engagement be divided across counties and sectors?
Are small employers distributed near the students and workers who need placements?
Which industries are most capable of providing two recurring placements per small employer?
Would some very small firms be able to host only one learner or participate every other year?
Could several small businesses share a learner through a coordinated project or rotational model?
What training should supervisors receive before hosting participants?
How would the system monitor placement quality across thousands of worksites?
What technology would be needed to track employer participation, placements, attrition, and renewal?
How much would statewide intermediary infrastructure cost?
What combination of public funding, employer investment, and philanthropy could sustain it?
Should Hawaiʻi establish employer-participation goals by county, industry, or business size?
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