How does the number of young people projected to enter Maui County’s workforce compare with the number of living-wage job openings available between 2022 and 2032?
Workforce Understory Episode: Season 1, Episode 1 — The Geography of Opportunity
Geography: Maui County
Topic: Living-wage opportunity, projected job growth, and job quality
The takeaway
Maui County is projected to have 20,037 young people enter its workforce between 2022 and 2032.
During the same period, the county is projected to generate approximately 9,000 living-wage job openings.
That amounts to enough living-wage opportunity for only about 45% of Maui’s projected workforce entrants.
More than half of Maui’s incoming workforce may enter an economy without a living-wage job available for them.
What this visualization shows
This visualization compares the number of young people projected to enter Maui County’s workforce with the number of job openings expected to meet or exceed the county’s living-wage threshold.
The comparison reveals a significant mismatch. Maui is expected to have more than 20,000 new workforce entrants over the decade, but fewer than half as many living-wage openings.
This does not mean that every opening will go to a new entrant or that every entrant will compete for only one job. Incumbent workers seeking advancement, adults returning to the workforce, and people moving to Maui may also pursue these opportunities.
Instead, the visualization provides a high-level measure of whether Maui’s economy is projected to create enough quality jobs for the next generation of workers.
The answer is concerning. Even if young people complete their education, participate in internships, and develop the skills employers need, the local economy may still lack enough living-wage opportunities to absorb the talent being prepared.
The challenge is therefore not only whether Maui can prepare people for work.
It is whether the economy can create enough quality work for them to enter.
Why this matters
Maui has invested in career-connected learning, internships, education, and workforce development. These efforts can help young people build experience, explore careers, and prepare for employment.
But workforce preparation alone cannot create economic mobility if the labor market does not generate enough living-wage jobs.
When only 45% of projected entrants have a corresponding living-wage opening, many young people may face difficult choices. They may accept work that pays below the cost of living, combine multiple jobs, remain dependent on family support, delay financial independence, or leave Maui in search of stronger career opportunities.
This suggests that Maui’s workforce challenge may be shaped as much by employer demand as by the supply of prepared workers.
The county may need to continue strengthening education and training while also expanding the number of employers, industries, and occupations capable of providing living-wage work. It may also need to improve wages and advancement opportunities within the sectors that already employ large numbers of residents.
This evidence invites Maui to ask:
Are we preparing young people for opportunities that the local economy is actually capable of providing at sufficient scale?
Evidence:
Questions this visualization helps answer
How many young people are projected to enter Maui’s workforce over the decade?
How many living-wage job openings are projected during the same period?
What share of Maui’s incoming workforce may have access to a living-wage opportunity?
Is Maui’s economy expected to create enough quality jobs for its future workforce?
Does the county primarily face a workforce-preparation challenge or a shortage of living-wage employer demand?
Curiosity:
Questions this visualization raises
What happens to the 55% of projected workforce entrants for whom there is no corresponding living-wage opening?
How many young people may leave Maui in search of greater economic opportunity?
How many may work multiple jobs or remain in employment below the living-wage threshold?
Which industries account for most of Maui’s projected living-wage openings?
Which sectors generate large numbers of openings but relatively few living-wage opportunities?
How does Maui’s industry and occupation mix compare with the other counties?
Which industries may be crowding out—or failing to generate—living-wage job growth?
Are Maui’s existing education, internship, and training programs aligned with the living-wage opportunities that do exist?
Do employers have enough capacity to hire the talent emerging from those programs?
Which sectors could expand living-wage employment at meaningful scale?
How can Maui improve wages and advancement opportunities within tourism, hospitality, healthcare, construction, and other major industries?
What role could economic diversification play in retaining young people?
Is the ratio of workforce entrants to living-wage openings improving or worsening over time?
How does access to living-wage opportunity differ across demographic groups and communities within Maui County?
