What share of Maui County’s projected job openings between 2022 and 2032 will pay a living wage?
Workforce Understory Episode: Season 1, Episode 1 — The Geography of Opportunity
Geography: Maui County
Topic: Living-wage opportunity, projected job growth, and job quality
The takeaway
Maui County is projected to generate 47,700 job openings between 2022 and 2032. Only 9,000 of those openings are expected to meet or exceed the living-wage threshold.
Approximately 81% of Maui County’s projected openings will pay below a living wage.
Only about one in five projected job openings in Maui County will provide a living wage.
What this visualization shows
This visualization compares the total number of projected job openings in Maui County with the number expected to meet or exceed the county’s living-wage threshold.
The comparison reveals a significant difference between the quantity of projected employment and the quality of those opportunities. Maui County is expected to generate tens of thousands of job openings, but most will not provide enough income for a single adult to meet the local cost of living.
This is especially important in a county where housing, transportation, food, and other essential expenses place substantial pressure on workers and families. A growing number of jobs does not necessarily translate into greater economic security if wages remain disconnected from the cost of living.
The visualization therefore challenges communities to evaluate workforce growth differently. The central question is not simply whether employers will have positions to fill.
It is whether those positions will allow people to remain in Maui County and build stable lives.
Why this matters
Job growth is often treated as evidence of a healthy economy. Yet the value of that growth depends heavily on the quality of the jobs being created.
When 81% of projected openings fall below the living-wage threshold, workers may find employment without achieving economic stability. They may need to hold multiple jobs, live with extended family, commute long distances, postpone major life decisions, or leave Maui County in search of more sustainable opportunities.
Employers are affected as well. When wages do not align with the local cost of living, businesses and public institutions may struggle to recruit and retain the workers they need. Persistent vacancies can reduce service capacity, increase burnout, and create greater dependence on workers recruited from outside the county.
The scale of below-living-wage growth also raises questions about the structure of Maui County’s economy. If projected hiring remains concentrated in industries and occupations that do not provide economic security, workforce strategies cannot focus only on preparing more people to fill available jobs. They must also consider job quality, career advancement, wage growth, and the development of additional living-wage opportunities.
This evidence invites Maui County to ask:
How can future job growth create more opportunities for people to build economically secure lives in the communities where they work?
Evidence:
Questions this visualization helps answer
How many total job openings are projected in Maui County?
How many of those openings are expected to meet the living-wage threshold?
Does projected job growth in Maui County translate into economic security for workers?
How large is the gap between the number of jobs expected to become available and the number that will provide a living wage?
Is Maui County facing a shortage of jobs overall or a shortage of quality jobs?
Curiosity:
Questions this visualization raises
Which industries and occupations account for most of Maui County’s below-living-wage openings?
Which occupation groups are expected to create the greatest number of living-wage opportunities?
What economic diversification strategies could increase the share of future job growth that provides a living wage?
How much of the projected below-living-wage growth is connected to tourism, hospitality, food service, and retail?
What would it take to improve wages, benefits, scheduling, and advancement opportunities within Maui County’s largest employment sectors?
How many workers will need to hold multiple jobs to meet the county’s cost of living?
How does the shortage of living-wage opportunities affect worker recruitment, retention, and outmigration?
Are education and training programs aligned with the living-wage opportunities that do exist?
How has Maui’s labor market changed following recent economic disruptions and community recovery efforts?
Is the share of projected living-wage openings increasing or decreasing over time?
How does Maui County’s balance of living-wage and below-living-wage openings compare with the other counties?
Youth Perspective
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